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Obesity has displaced oncology as the largest contributor to late-stage pipeline value, according to an annual report from auditors and management consultants Deloitte.
In the 16th edition of its ‘Measuring the return from pharmaceutical innovation‘ report, published on 4 May 2026, Deloitte suggested that the largest companies are increasingly concentrating their resources and investment in one or two core therapy areas.
It also found that obesity drugs have boosted returns on research investment; however, this finding masks pressures in other areas.
To combat the rising cost of research and development, the report recommended that companies would need end-to-end operational integration of AI.
According to the report, in 2025, glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) and glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide assets accounted for approximately 25% of total forecast sales of the late-stage pipeline — up from just 1% of projected value in 2022.
It also revealed that when these drugs were excluded from the analysis, late-stage pipeline portfolios promised a return of just 2.9% (down from 3.8% in 2024) and average forecast peaks sales of US$353m (down from US$370m in 2024).
“Novel GLP-1 combinations are being viewed favourably by analysts compared to other totally net-new mechanisms of action, highlighting the disproportionate commercial attractiveness of the obesity market,” the report noted.
In 2025, oncology assets contributed 20% of the total late-stage forecast value — down from 26% in 2024, it added.
The findings of the report also show that more than half (55%) of the assets reaching late-stage development in 2025 were large molecules, which are complex biologics effective at targeting specific biological processes and treating specific diseases.
“[This investment comes] largely at the expense of traditional small molecules [generally synthetically-produced drugs] which represent 38% of assets and 29% of projected value (down from 41% of assets and 46% of value in 2024),” the report added.
“The focus on rare and orphan diseases remains a consistent strategic priority for the industry. The proportion of rare disease assets in the late-stage pipeline has held steady, accounting for 36% of the total volume of assets in 2025 and is projected to contribute 18% of the late-stage pipeline’s total value.”
Amira Guirguis, chief scientist at the Royal College of Pharmacy, told The Pharmaceutical Journal that the report’s findings reflected “strong scientific and commercial momentum in obesity research” but also raised “questions about balance across the wider innovation pipeline”.
“The Deloitte report highlights a major shift in pharmaceutical innovation, with GLP-1 obesity medicines now accounting for a much larger share of pipeline value and, for the first time in 16 years, overtaking oncology.
“This reflects strong scientific and commercial momentum in obesity research, while also raising important questions about balance across the wider innovation pipeline. For patients, these medicines may offer meaningful benefits where excess weight and related comorbidities are affecting health and quality of life. However, their use must remain evidence based, safely regulated and firmly grounded in clinical need.
“From a pharmacy and patient care perspective, the priority is ensuring that these therapies are used appropriately within well-defined clinical pathways, with clear guidance, professional oversight and equitable access. Pharmacists and pharmaceutical scientists have an important role in supporting safe use, helping patients understand benefits and risks, and ensuring these medicines are integrated into longer-term, holistic care,” she added.
Commenting on Deloitte’s report, Mohammed Hassnawi, executive committee pharmacy industry representative for the British Oncology Pharmacy Association (BOPA), said: “Decisions on where companies invest and bring new medicines remain strongly influenced by national policy environments.”
He also noted the reduction of “high and unpredictable” ‘Voluntary scheme for branded medicines pricing, access and growth’ (VPAG) payment rates in recent years, the recently increased NICE cost‑effectiveness thresholds, as well as the recent UK–US trade agreement, which “represents an important step towards improving predictability and supporting long-term investment”.
“While BOPA welcomes all these reforms, continued focus on creating a stable and internationally competitive environment will be key to ensuring UK patients benefit from timely access to innovative therapies, particularly in cancer where delays can directly impact patient outcomes,” Hassnawi added.
